Travel to the U.S. is down even more dramatically than we thought, data shows

The latest cell phone data reveals a significant decline in Canadian travel to the United States, with some cities experiencing a staggering 65% drop-off in visitors over the past year. The overall decline stands at 42%, with popular tourist destinations like Orlando and Myrtle Beach being just as affected as major business centers such as San Francisco and New York.

This sharp decrease has far-reaching implications for both economies. While official Statistics Canada figures show a 25% decline in Canadian residents returning from the U.S. last year, cell phone data paints an even more dire picture. Researchers at the University of Toronto’s School of Cities have been tracking this trend since April 2025, when President Trump imposed global tariffs and dubbed it “liberation day.” Their findings suggest that Canadians are avoiding not only tourist hotspots but also business centers.

The economic impact is substantial: if current trends continue, the loss to the U.S. economy could be around $8.4 billion – significantly higher than the estimated $2.1 billion impact mentioned by the US Travel Association last year. This decline goes beyond lost revenue; it signals a fundamental shift in trade patterns and business relationships between Canada and the United States.

Canadian businesses in retail and tourism have been particularly hard hit, with sales plummeting by as much as 80% since 2019, according to Barbara Barrett, executive director of the Frontier Duty Free Association. “It’s just down, down, down,” she says, describing the devastating effect on her members’ stores along the border.

The approval of Canadians’ efforts to stand up to the Americans by Prime Minister and former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney highlights a deeper issue: the erosion of trust between nations. As tensions escalate, we’re witnessing a new normal emerge – one where business as usual isn’t possible.

This development raises questions about Canada’s future. Will the boycott be sustained, or will Canadians eventually tire of this tit-for-tat game? The data suggests that while some businesses may adapt by expanding their international reach, others risk being left behind in an era where globalization is increasingly under scrutiny. We’re witnessing a fundamental shift in how nations interact and do business.

As we move forward, it’s clear that the current trade dispute has set off a chain reaction that will be felt for years to come. Canadians are sending a message – loud and clear – about their concerns with US policies. But what’s next? Will this boycott continue to fuel economic uncertainty or spark meaningful change in diplomatic relations?